Relation of Incident Type 1 Diabetes to Recent COVID-19 Infection: Cohort Study Using e-Health Record Linkage in Scotland.

OBJECTIVE: Studies using claims databases reported that SARS-CoV-2 infection >30 days earlier was associated with an increase in the incidence of type 1 diabetes. Using exact dates of diabetes diagnosis from the national register in Scotland linked to virology laboratory data, we sought to replicate this finding. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cohort of 1,849,411 individuals aged <35 years without diabetes, including all those in Scotland who subsequently tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, was followed from 1 March 2020 to 22 November 2021. Incident type 1 diabetes was ascertained from the national registry. Using Cox regression, we tested the association of time-updated infection with incident diabetes. Trends in incidence of type 1 diabetes in the population from 2015 through 2021 were also estimated in a generalized additive model. RESULTS: There were 365,080 individuals who had at least one detected SARS-CoV-2 infection during follow-up and 1074 who developed type 1 diabetes. The rate ratio for incident type 1 diabetes associated with first positive test for SARS-CoV-2 (reference category: no previous infection) was 0.86 (95% CI 0.62, 1.21) for infection >30 days earlier and 2.62 (95% CI 1.81, 3.78) for infection in the previous 30 days. However, negative and positive SARS-CoV-2 tests were more frequent in the days surrounding diabetes presentation. In those aged 0-14 years, incidence of type 1 diabetes during 2020-2021 was 20% higher than the 7-year average. CONCLUSIONS: Type 1 diabetes incidence in children increased during the pandemic. However, the cohort analysis suggests that SARS-CoV-2 infection itself was not the cause of this increase.

A UK nationwide study of adults admitted to hospital with diabetic ketoacidosis or hyperosmolar hyperglycaemic state and COVID-19.

AIMS: To investigate characteristics of people hospitalized with coronavirus-disease-2019 (COVID-19) and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) or hyperosmolar hyperglycaemic state (HHS), and to identify risk factors for mortality and intensive care admission. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study with anonymized data from the Association of British Clinical Diabetologists nationwide audit of hospital admissions with COVID-19 and diabetes, from start of pandemic to November 2021. The primary outcome was inpatient mortality. DKA and HHS were adjudicated against national criteria. Age-adjusted odds ratios were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 85 confirmed DKA cases, and 20 HHS, occurred among 4073 people (211 type 1 diabetes, 3748 type 2 diabetes, 114 unknown type) hospitalized with COVID-19. Mean (SD) age was 60 (18.2) years in DKA and 74 (11.8) years in HHS (p < .001). A higher proportion of patients with HHS than with DKA were of non-White ethnicity (71.4% vs 39.0% p = .038). Mortality in DKA was 36.8% (n = 57) and 3.8% (n = 26) in type 2 and type 1 diabetes respectively. Among people with type 2 diabetes and DKA, mortality was lower in insulin users compared with non-users [21.4% vs. 52.2%; age-adjusted odds ratio 0.13 (95% CI 0.03-0.60)]. Crude mortality was lower in DKA than HHS (25.9% vs. 65.0%, p = .001) and in statin users versus non-users (36.4% vs. 100%; p = .035) but these were not statistically significant after age adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization with COVID-19 and adjudicated DKA is four times more common than HHS but both associate with substantial mortality. There is a strong association of previous insulin therapy with survival in type 2 diabetes-associated DKA.

The association between macrovascular complications and intensive care admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and mortality in people with diabetes hospitalized for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19).

BACKGROUND: It is not clear whether pre-existing macrovascular complications (ischemic heart disease, stroke or peripheral artery disease) are associated with health outcomes in people with diabetes mellitus hospitalized for COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted cohort studies of adults with pre-existing diabetes hospitalized for COVID-19 infection in the UK, France, and Spain during the early phase of the pandemic (between March 2020-October 2020). Logistic regression models adjusted for demographic factors and other comorbidities were used to determine associations between previous macrovascular disease and relevant clinical outcomes: mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and use of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) during the hospitalization. Output from individual logistic regression models for each cohort was combined in a meta-analysis. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 4,106 (60.4%) individuals. Of these, 1,652 (40.2%) had any prior macrovascular disease of whom 28.5% of patients died. Mortality was higher for people with compared to those without previous macrovascular disease (37.7% vs 22.4%). The combined crude odds ratio (OR) for previous macrovascular disease and mortality for all four cohorts was 2.12 (95% CI 1.83-2.45 with an I2 of 60%, reduced after adjustments for age, sex, type of diabetes, hypertension, microvascular disease, ethnicity, and BMI to adjusted OR 1.53 [95% CI 1.29-1.81]) for the three cohorts. Further analysis revealed that ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were the main contributors of adverse outcomes. However, proportions of people admitted to ICU (adjOR 0.48 [95% CI 0.31-0.75], I2 60%) and the use of IMV during hospitalization (adjOR 0.52 [95% CI 0.40-0.68], I2 37%) were significantly lower for people with previous macrovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: This large multinational study of people with diabetes mellitus hospitalized for COVID-19 demonstrates that previous macrovascular disease is associated with higher mortality and lower proportions admitted to ICU and treated with IMV during hospitalization suggesting selective admission criteria. Our findings highlight the importance correctly assess the prognosis and intensive monitoring in this high-risk group of patients and emphasize the need to design specific public health programs aimed to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection in this subgroup.

Association Between SGLT2 Inhibitor Treatment and Diabetic Ketoacidosis and Mortality in People With Type 2 Diabetes Admitted to Hospital With COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between prescription of SGLT2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) incidence or mortality in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) hospitalized with COVID-19. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study based on secondary analysis of data from a large nationwide audit from a network of 40 centers in the U.K. with data collection up to December 2020. The study was originally designed to describe risk factors associated with adverse outcomes among people with diabetes who were admitted to hospital with COVID-19. The primary outcome for this analysis was DKA on or during hospital admission. The secondary outcome was mortality. Crude, age-sex adjusted, and multivariable logistic regression models were used to generate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for people prescribed SGLT2i compared with those not prescribed SGLT2i. RESULTS: The original national audit included 3,067 people with T2D who were admitted to hospital with COVID-19, of whom 230 (7.5%) were prescribed SGLT2is prior to hospital admission. The mean age of the overall cohort was 72 years, 62.3% were men, and 34.9% were prescribed insulin. Overall, 2.8% of the total population had DKA and 35.6% of people in the study died. The adjusted odds of DKA were not significantly different between those prescribed SGLT2is and those not (OR 0.56; 95% CI 0.16-1.97). The adjusted odds of mortality associated with SGLT2is were similar in the total study population (OR 1.13; 95% CI 0.78-1.63), in the subgroup prescribed insulin (OR 1.02; 95% CI 0.59-1.77), and in the subgroup that developed DKA (OR 0.21; 95% CI 0.01-8.76). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate a low risk of DKA and high mortality rate in people with T2D admitted to hospital with COVID-19 and limited power, but no evidence, of increased risk of DKA or in-hospital mortality associated with prescription of SGLT2is.

Association of statin and/or renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system modulating therapy with mortality in adults with diabetes admitted to hospital with COVID-19: A retrospective multicentre European study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To assess the impact of pre-admission renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) and statin use on mortality following COVID-19 hospitalization in adults with pre-existing diabetes. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of adults with diabetes admitted to ninety-nine participating hospitals in the United Kingdom, France and Spain during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Logistic regression models adjusted for demographic factors and comorbidity were used to describe associations with mortality in hospital or within 28 days of admission and individual or combined RAASi and statin therapy prescription followed by a country level meta-analysis. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 3474 (42.6%) individuals. Prescribing patterns varied by country: 25-50% neither RAASi nor statin therapy, 14-36% both RAASi and statin therapy, 9-24% RAASi therapy alone, 12-36% statin alone. Overall, 20-37% of patients died within 28 days. Meta-analysis found no evidence of an association between mortality and prescription of RAASi therapy (OR 1.09, CI 0.78-1.52 (I2 22.2%)), statin (OR 0.97, CI 0.59-1.61 (I2 72.9%)) or both (OR 1.14, CI 0.67-1.92 (I2 78.3%)) compared to those prescribed neither drug class. CONCLUSIONS: This large multicentre, multinational study found no evidence of an association between mortality from COVID-19 infection in people with diabetes and use of either RAASi, statin or combination therapy. This provides reassurance that clinicians should not change their RAASi and statin therapy prescribing practice in people with diabetes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Epidemiology of type 2 diabetes remission in Scotland in 2019: A cross-sectional population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical pathways are changing to incorporate support and appropriate follow-up for people to achieve remission of type 2 diabetes, but there is limited understanding of the prevalence of remission in current practice or patient characteristics associated with remission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We carried out a cross-sectional study estimating the prevalence of remission of type 2 diabetes in all adults in Scotland aged ≥30 years diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and alive on December 31, 2019. Remission of type 2 diabetes was assessed between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2019. We defined remission as all HbA1c values <48 mmol/mol in the absence of glucose-lowering therapy (GLT) for a continuous duration of ≥365 days before the date of the last recorded HbA1c in 2019. Multivariable logistic regression in complete and multiply imputed datasets was used to examine characteristics associated with remission. Our cohort consisted of 162,316 individuals, all of whom had at least 1 HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%) at or after diagnosis of diabetes and at least 1 HbA1c recorded in 2019 (78.5% of the eligible population). Over half (56%) of our cohort was aged 65 years or over in 2019, and 64% had had type 2 diabetes for at least 6 years. Our cohort was predominantly of white ethnicity (74%), and ethnicity data were missing for 19% of the cohort. Median body mass index (BMI) at diagnosis was 32.3 kg/m2. A total of 7,710 people (4.8% [95% confidence interval [CI] 4.7 to 4.9]) were in remission of type 2 diabetes. Factors associated with remission were older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.48 [95% CI 1.34 to 1.62] P < 0.001) for people aged ≥75 years compared to 45 to 54 year group), HbA1c <48 mmol/mol at diagnosis (OR 1.31 [95% CI 1.24 to 1.39] P < 0.001) compared to 48 to 52 mmol/mol), no previous history of GLT (OR 14.6 [95% CI 13.7 to 15.5] P < 0.001), weight loss from diagnosis to 2019 (OR 4.45 [95% CI 3.89 to 5.10] P < 0.001) for ≥15 kg of weight loss compared to 0 to 4.9 kg weight gain), and previous bariatric surgery (OR 11.9 [95% CI 9.41 to 15.1] P < 0.001). Limitations of the study include the use of a limited subset of possible definitions of remission of type 2 diabetes, missing data, and inability to identify self-funded bariatric surgery. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that 4.8% of people with type 2 diabetes who had at least 1 HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%) after diagnosis of diabetes and had at least 1 HbA1c recorded in 2019 had evidence of type 2 diabetes remission. Guidelines are required for management and follow-up of this group and may differ depending on whether weight loss and remission of diabetes were intentional or unintentional. Our findings can be used to evaluate the impact of future initiatives on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes remission.

Marked and widening socioeconomic inequalities in type 2 diabetes prevalence in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the association between socioeconomic status and type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence in Scotland in 2021 and tested the null hypothesis that inequalities had not changed since they were last described for 2001-2007. METHODS: Data from a national population-based diabetes database for 35-to-84-year-olds in Scotland for 2021 and mid-year population estimates for 2019 stratified by sex and fifths of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation were used to calculate age-specific prevalence of T2D. Age-standardised prevalence was estimated using the European Standard Population with relative risks (RRs) compared between the most (Q1) and least (Q5) deprived fifths for each sex, and compared against similar estimates from 2001 to 2007. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 255 764 people (98.9%) with T2D. Age-standardised prevalence was lowest for women in Q5 (3.4%) and highest for men in Q1 (11.6%). RRs have increased from 2.00 (95% CI 1.52 to 2.62) in 2001-2007 to 2.48 (95% CI 2.43 to 2.53) in 2021 for women and from 1.58 (95% CI 1.20 to 2.07) in 2007 to 1.89 (95% CI 1.86 to 1.92) in 2021 for men. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic inequalities in T2D prevalence have widened between 2001-2007 and 2021. Further research is required to investigate potential medium-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cohort profile: National Diabetes Audit for England and Wales.

The National Diabetes Audit (NDA) collates and analyses data on the quality and variation in clinical care and outcomes for people with diabetes. It also provides opportunities to assess trends, determinants, and outcomes of diabetes to help guide clinical and public health priorities. COHORT: Between 1 January 2003 and 31 March 2020, a total of 5,280,885 people diagnosed with diabetes were included in at least one NDA data collection. To this date, median follow-up was 12 and 8 years for people with type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes respectively. Comparisons with the 2019/20 Quality and Outcomes Framework show it included 98% of adults in England and Wales with diagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Data include demographic characteristics (age, sex, ethnicity, age at diagnosis, deprivation), risk factors (HbA1c , blood pressure, cholesterol, body mass index, smoking status) diabetic and cardiovascular complications and deaths. SECONDARY ANALYSIS: Secondary analyses have included comparisons of HbA1c and blood pressure measurements in cohorts with similar characteristics to the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications study and the UK Prospective Diabetes Study; COVID-19 related mortality in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes and incidence of type 2 diabetes following admission to intensive care units. FUTURE PLANS: Commissioned NDA reports will continue to inform service development in England and Wales. The same data, with or without linkages to other external datasets, are also a rich resource for clinically orientated research.

A UK nationwide study of people with type 1 diabetes admitted to hospital with COVID-19 infection.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to describe the clinical characteristics of adults with type 1 diabetes admitted to hospital and the risk factors associated with severe coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the UK. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed using data collected through a nationwide audit of people admitted to hospital with diabetes and COVID-19, conducted by the Association of British Clinical Diabetologists from March to October 2020. Prespecified demographic, clinical, medication and laboratory data were collected from the electronic and paper medical record systems of the participating hospitals by local clinicians. The primary outcome of the study, severe COVID-19, was defined as death in hospital and/or admission to the adult intensive care unit (AICU). Logistic regression models were used to generate age-adjusted ORs. RESULTS: Forty UK centres submitted data. The final dataset included 196 adults who were admitted to hospital and had both type 1 diabetes and COVID-19 on admission (male sex 55%, white 70%, with mean [SD] age 62 [19] years, BMI 28.3 [7.3] kg/m2 and last recorded HbA1c 76 [31] mmol/mol [9.1 (5.0)%]). The prevalence of pre-existing microvascular disease and macrovascular disease was 56% and 39%, respectively. The prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis on admission was 29%. A total of 68 patients (35%) died or were admitted to AICU. The proportions of people that died were 7%, 38% and 38% of those aged <55, 55-74 and ≥75 years, respectively. BMI, serum creatinine levels and having one or more microvascular complications were positively associated with the primary outcome after adjusting for age. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In people with type 1 diabetes and COVID-19 who were admitted to hospital in the UK, higher BMI, poorer renal function and presence of microvascular complications were associated with greater risk of death and/or admission to AICU. Risk of severe COVID-19 is reassuringly very low in people with type 1 diabetes who are under 55 years of age without microvascular or macrovascular disease. IN PEOPLE WITH TYPE 1 DIABETES AND COVID-19 ADMITTED TO HOSPITAL IN THE UK, BMI AND ONE OR MORE MICROVASCULAR COMPLICATIONS HAD A POSITIVE ASSOCIATION AND LOW SERUM CREATINE LEVELS HAD A NEGATIVE ASSOCIATION WITH DEATH/ADMISSION TO INTENSIVE CARE UNIT AFTER ADJUSTING FOR AGE.

Risks of and risk factors for COVID-19 disease in people with diabetes: a cohort study of the total population of Scotland.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to ascertain the cumulative risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes and compare it with that of people without diabetes, and to investigate risk factors for and build a cross-validated predictive model of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 among people with diabetes. METHODS: In this cohort study, we captured the data encompassing the first wave of the pandemic in Scotland, from March 1, 2020, when the first case was identified, to July 31, 2020, when infection rates had dropped sufficiently that shielding measures were officially terminated. The participants were the total population of Scotland, including all people with diabetes who were alive 3 weeks before the start of the pandemic in Scotland (estimated Feb 7, 2020). We ascertained how many people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in this period from the Electronic Communication of Surveillance in Scotland database (on virology), the RAPID database of daily hospitalisations, the Scottish Morbidity Records-01 of hospital discharges, the National Records of Scotland death registrations data, and the Scottish Intensive Care Society and Audit Group database (on critical care). Among people with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19, diabetes status was ascertained by linkage to the national diabetes register, Scottish Care Information Diabetes. We compared the cumulative incidence of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with and without diabetes using logistic regression. For people with diabetes, we obtained data on potential risk factors for fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 from the national diabetes register and other linked health administrative databases. We tested the association of these factors with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes, and constructed a prediction model using stepwise regression and 20-fold cross-validation. FINDINGS: Of the total Scottish population on March 1, 2020 (n=5 463 300), the population with diabetes was 319 349 (5·8%), 1082 (0·3%) of whom developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 by July 31, 2020, of whom 972 (89·8%) were aged 60 years or older. In the population without diabetes, 4081 (0·1%) of 5 143 951 people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19. As of July 31, the overall odds ratio (OR) for diabetes, adjusted for age and sex, was 1·395 (95% CI 1·304-1·494; p<0·0001, compared with the risk in those without diabetes. The OR was 2·396 (1·815-3·163; p<0·0001) in type 1 diabetes and 1·369 (1·276-1·468; p<0·0001) in type 2 diabetes. Among people with diabetes, adjusted for age, sex, and diabetes duration and type, those who developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 were more likely to be male, live in residential care or a more deprived area, have a COVID-19 risk condition, retinopathy, reduced renal function, or worse glycaemic control, have had a diabetic ketoacidosis or hypoglycaemia hospitalisation in the past 5 years, be on more anti-diabetic and other medication (all p<0·0001), and have been a smoker (p=0·0011). The cross-validated predictive model of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes had a C-statistic of 0·85 (0·83-0·86). INTERPRETATION: Overall risks of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 were substantially elevated in those with type 1 and type 2 diabetes compared with the background population. The risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19, and therefore the need for special protective measures, varies widely among those with diabetes but can be predicted reasonably well using previous clinical history. FUNDING: None.